Perioperative medicine & outcomes

A warning model for predicting patient admissions to the intensive care unit (ICU) following surgery

Perioper Med (Lond)Published Prediction model development study

Authors' conclusion

The postoperative admission warning model constructed in this study can effectively predict the probability of patients being admitted to the ICU after surgery, providing a corresponding management tool for postoperative care in surgical patients.

Study context

Population
Surgical patients in the VitalDB database
Exposure
Logistic regression vs random forest vs support vector machine vs multi-layer perceptron
Outcome
Postoperative ICU admission
Methodological detailsretrospective database (VitalDB), machine learning, LASSO regression and random forest variable selection, nomogram
  • Retrospective database (VitalDB)
  • Machine learning
  • LASSO regression and random forest variable selection
  • Nomogram

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Prediction of postoperative ICU admission
GroupROC AUC
Logistic regression0.925

Logistic regression

ROC AUC0.925

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Original publication

A warning model for predicting patient admissions to the intensive care unit (ICU) following surgery. Perioper Med (Lond). Published 2 June 2025. doi:10.1186/s13741-025-00544-6

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