Independent Factors Associated With Opioid Refills at 31 to 60 and 61 to 90 Days After Discharge From Spine Surgery: A Novel Predictor of High-Risk Patients
Main finding · Opioid refills postdischargeResult — go to the resultAdjusted odds ratio 6.71 95% CI 5.90–7.65Authors' conclusion
A refill at 31 to 60 days after discharge may serve as a predictor of high-risk patients who could benefit from TPS management to mitigate further opioid use.
Study context
- Population
- Adults, regardless of opioid-naïve status, after inpatient spine surgery at an academic medical center, discharged January 2017–December 2023
- Participants
- 11,087 adults
- Exposure
- Refill at 31 to 60 days vs none as predictor of refill at 61 to 90 days
- Outcome
- Opioid refills at 31 to 60 and 61 to 90 days postdischarge
- Follow-up
- 31 to 60 and 61 to 90 days postdischarge
Methodological detailssingle academic medical center
- Single academic medical center
Main finding
Opioid refills postdischarge
Adjusted odds ratio
6.71
95% CI 5.90–7.65
Refill at 31 to 60 days vs none as predictor of refill at 61 to 90 days
aOR 6.71 (95% CI 5.90–7.65)
As reported in the abstract
- Refill at 31 to 60 days postdischarge
- 25.4%
- Refill at 61 to 90 days postdischarge
- 14.8%
- Refill at 31 to 60 days predicting refill at 61 to 90 days: NPV
- 94.3%
- Refill at 31 to 60 days predicting refill at 61 to 90 days: PPV
- 41.5%
- Refill rates at 31 to 60 and 61 to 90 days linearly correlated (slope)
- 0.73
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
NPV across subgroups (preoperative opioid use, surgical procedure, surgeon) (subgroup)
- Consistently high NPVs across subgroups
Other independent risk factors for refills at 31 to 60 and 61 to 90 days
- Refill at 1 to 30 days; preoperative opioids, marijuana, benzodiazepine; first postoperative pain score on hospital floor; depression associated with increased odds of refills
- Total dose of discharge opioid prescriptions had minimal impact on refills
Original publication
Independent Factors Associated With Opioid Refills at 31 to 60 and 61 to 90 Days After Discharge From Spine Surgery: A Novel Predictor of High-Risk Patients. Anesth Analg. Published 25 February 2026. doi:10.
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