ICU sedation, delirium & recovery
Physicians' perceptions of intensive care patients' 1‐year prognoses compared to realistic prognoses
Authors' conclusion
Finnish anesthesiologists commonly misestimate the long-term prognoses of ICU patients, more often underestimating than overestimating the likelihood of 1-year survival.
Study context
- Population
- Finnish anesthesiologists estimating 1-year survival of intensive care unit (ICU) patients from data available at start of intensive care2,520 estimates
- Participants
- 210 participants
- Exposure
- Physicians' estimates of 1-year survival vs registry data-based realistic prognoses
- Specialists mainly in ICUn = 43
- Specialists occasionally in ICUn = 81
- Specialists not in ICUn = 47
- Doctors in trainingn = 39
- Outcome
- Difference between estimated and realistic probability of 1-year survival
- Follow-up
- 1 year
Methodological detailsvignette-based (12 fictional patient cases), comparison with registry data-based prognoses, Email survey; 12 fictional real-life-based cases; estimates chosen from 5%, 10%-90% in 10% intervals, 95%
- Vignette-based (12 fictional patient cases)
- Comparison with registry data-based prognoses
- Email survey; 12 fictional real-life-based cases; estimates chosen from 5%, 10%-90% in 10% intervals, 95%
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Difference between estimate and realistic prognosis (all estimates)
- Difference <10 percentage points
- 1083 (43.0%) estimates
- Difference 10–20 percentage points
- 645 (25.6%) estimates
- Difference >20 percentage points
- 792 (31.4%) estimates
- Underestimated survival by >20 percentage points
- 612 (24.3% of all estimates)
- Overestimated survival by >20 percentage points
- 180 (7.1%)
- Median error, all estimates (IQR)
- −8.8 (−20.0 to −0.2)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | Specialists mainly in ICU | Specialists occasionally in ICU | Specialists not in ICU | Doctors in training |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median of respondents' median errors, by respondent group | median −8.6 (IQR −12.6–-5.0) percentage points | median −8.1 (IQR −13.0–-5.2) percentage points | median −9.7 (IQR −17.7–-6.3) percentage points | median −9.1 (IQR −14.5–-5.1) percentage points |
- Median of respondents' median errors, by respondent group: p = .29 across groups
Original publication
Physicians' perceptions of intensive care patients' 1‐year prognoses compared to realistic prognoses. Acta Anaesthesiol Scand. Published 4 March 2024. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →