Neuroanesthesia & neurocritical care
Predicting 30-day mortality in intensive care unit patients with ischaemic stroke or intracerebral haemorrhage
Authors' conclusion
We developed and validated two prognostic models for patients with ischaemic stroke and ICH separately with a high discrimination and good calibration to predict 30-day mortality within 24 h after ICU admission.
Study context
- Population
- Adults with ischaemic stroke or intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) admitted to 85 Dutch intensive care unit (ICUs) (National Intensive Care Evaluation database), 2010–2019
- Participants
- 14,303 adults
- Exposure
- New prognostic models vs Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE-IV) model
- Ischaemic stroken = 8,422
- ICHn = 5,881
- Outcome
- Discrimination of new prognostic models
Methodological detailsprognostic model development and validation, multicentre registry
- Prognostic model development and validation
- Multicentre registry
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
| Group | AUC | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|
| Ischaemic stroke | 0.85 | 0.84 to 0.87 |
| ICH | 0.85 | 0.83 to 0.86 |
AUC
Ischaemic stroke0.85
ICH0.85
95% CI
Ischaemic stroke0.84 to 0.87
ICH0.83 to 0.86
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
30-day mortality
| Outcome | Ischaemic stroke | ICH |
|---|---|---|
| APACHE-IV model discrimination for 30-day mortality | ||
| AUC | 0.86 | 0.87 |
| 95% CI | 0.85 to 0.87 | 0.86 to 0.89 |
APACHE-IV model discrimination for 30-day mortality
- Similar performance to new models
Important predictors of 30-day mortality
- Age, lowest Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) in first 24 h, acute physiological disturbance (Acute Physiology Score) and mechanical ventilation, in both ischaemic stroke and ICH
Parts of this Brief are withheld: the automatic checks could not confirm them against the abstract.
Original publication
Predicting 30-day mortality in intensive care unit patients with ischaemic stroke or intracerebral haemorrhage. Eur J Anaesthesiol. Published 14 November 2023. doi:10.
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