Perioperative medicine & outcomes
A novel nomogram prediction model for postoperative atrial fibrillation in patients undergoing laparotomy
Authors' conclusion
A nomogram prediction model was constructed for POAF in patients who underwent abdominal surgery.
Study context
- Population
- Adults who underwent laparotomy
- Participants
- 230 adults · 2 hospitals
- Comparison
- Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) vs Control vs Validation
- POAFn = 60
- Controln = 120reference
- Validationn = 50
- Outcome
- Discrimination of a nomogram prediction model for POAF (AUC)
Methodological detailsprediction model development and validation, two hospitals, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate logistic regression, bootstrap internal validation, external validation
- Prediction model development and validation
- Two hospitals
- LASSO and multivariate logistic regression
- Bootstrap internal validation
- External validation
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Nomogram discrimination (AUC)
AUC, training set
0.90
95% CI 0.8509–0.9488
AUC, test set
0.86
95% CI 0.7142–1
AUC, validation group
0.9792
95% CI 0.9293–1
C-index of bootstrap nomogram model
0.8998
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Decision curve analysis
- Excellent fit and calibration, positive net benefits
Original publication
A novel nomogram prediction model for postoperative atrial fibrillation in patients undergoing laparotomy. Perioper Med (Lond). Published 2 December 2024. doi:10.
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