Perioperative medicine & outcomes

ACS NSQIP Risk Calculator Performance Across Multiple Domains of Operative Risk and Risk-associated Features

Ann SurgPublished Retrospective cohort study

Authors' conclusion

Regardless of a patient population's position on the risk spectrum, the RC provides valuable information with excellent calibration and good discrimination.

Study context

Population
ACS-NSQIP patients 2021–2024, partitioned into 21 subsets by combinations of risk, age ≥ 75, ASA class 3, 4, or 5, totally dependent functional status, emergent, and laparotomy or total colectomy operative group21 subsets
Participants
1,085,707 patients
Exposure
XGB vs CATB
Outcome
Calibration (absolute percentage error; APE) and discrimination (AUC) for mortality and morbidity outcomes
Methodological detailsrisk calculator validation, 21 high-risk subsets
  • Risk calculator validation
  • 21 high-risk subsets

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Calibration and discrimination across the 21 subsets
  • Calibration always excellent for both XGB and CATB (APE<10%)
  • With few exceptions, discrimination at least good for both XGB and CATB (AUC>0.7)

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Further findings

Observed outcome rates across the 21 subsets

Observed mortality range
0.04% to 60.01%
Observed morbidity range
3.33% to 59.17%

Original publication

ACS NSQIP Risk Calculator Performance Across Multiple Domains of Operative Risk and Risk-associated Features. Ann Surg. Published 13 May 2025. doi:10.1097/sla.0000000000006753

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