Perioperative medicine & outcomes
Biodemography of Human Aging (Gompertz–Makeham Law) Applied to Surgical Mortality Modeling: A Retrospective National Cohort Study
Authors' conclusion
The Gompertz-Makeham law seems to apply in a national cohort of surgical patients. The inflection point for increased 1-month risk is apparent at age 30 yr. A strict exponential rise in mortality risk occurs thereafter.
Study context
- Population
- Surgical procedures in a 10-yr New Zealand administrative dataset, 2007 to 2016
- Participants
- 5,615,100 surgical procedures
- Outcome
- Fit of Gompertz-Makeham law (semilogarithmic linear regression of mortality risk on age)
Methodological detailsadministrative dataset, New Zealand
- Administrative dataset
- New Zealand
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
1-month all-cause mortality
114,782
2.0%
Regression slope, national surgical population
0.0241
R2, national surgical population
0.971
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Subgroups (sex, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) Physical Status, surgical acuity, surgical severity, cancer status, ethnicity)
- Law applies in all subgroups; slopes
- 0.0066 to 0.0307
- R2
- 0.771 to 0.990
Interactions with age and mortality risk
- Important interactions with cancer diagnosis, ASA Physical Status IV to V and high surgical severity
Parts of this Brief are withheld: the automatic checks could not confirm them against the abstract.
Original publication
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