Perioperative medicine & outcomes
Development and validation of the Ex-Care BR model: a multicentre initiative for identifying Brazilian surgical patients at risk of 30-day in-hospital mortality
Authors' conclusion
The Ex-Care BR is the first model to consider regional and organisational peculiarities of the Brazilian surgical scene, in addition to patient and surgical factors.
Study context
- Population
- Surgical patients in 10 hospitals from different geographic regions in Brazil
- Participants
- 107,372 patients · 10 hospitals
- Exposure
- Derivation vs Validation
- Derivationn = 75,094
- Validationn = 32,278
- Outcome
- 30-day in-hospital mortality (model performance: AUROC, Brier score, calibration)
- Follow-up
- 30 days
Methodological detailsprediction model development and validation, multicentre, multilevel logistic regression, random derivation and validation cohorts
- Prediction model development and validation
- Multicentre
- Multilevel logistic regression
- Random derivation and validation cohorts
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Ex-Care BR model discrimination and overall performance
| Group | AUROC | Brier score |
|---|---|---|
| Derivation | 0.93 (95% CI 0.93-0.94) | 0.017 |
| Validation | 0.93 (95% CI 0.92-0.93) |
AUROC
Derivation0.93 (95% CI 0.93-0.94)
Validation0.93 (95% CI 0.92-0.93)
Brier score
Derivation0.017
Validation— not stated in the abstract
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
30-day in-hospital mortality (overall cohort)
- 30-day in-hospital mortality, n=2261
- 2.1%
Original publication
Development and validation of the Ex-Care BR model: a multicentre initiative for identifying Brazilian surgical patients at risk of 30-day in-hospital mortality. Br J Anaesth. Published 10 May 2024. doi:10.
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