Empirical pharmacodynamic model of phenylephrine and intrathecal bupivacaine for mean arterial pressure prediction in obstetric patients presenting for elective cesarean delivery under spinal anesthesia
Main finding · One-minute ahead MAP predictionResult — go to the resultBetter performance 48.9%Authors' conclusion
Our ARX model showed good performance at up to a three-minute prediction horizon
Study context
- Population
- Normotensive patients presenting for elective cesarean delivery under spinal anaesthesia with prophylactic phenylephrine70% fitting, 30% testing
- Participants
- 172 patients
- Outcome
- Prediction of MAP (one-minute ahead) from intrathecal bupivacaine and IV phenylephrine doses
Methodological detailssingle-center, secondary use data, prospectively recorded, independent validation dataset
- Single-center
- Secondary use data
- Prospectively recorded
- Independent validation dataset
Main finding
One-minute ahead MAP prediction
Better performance
48.9%
By group
ARX model
3.6
Root mean square error (RMSE) · ± 1.3 · mmHg
As reported in the abstract
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Independent validation, second dataset: RMSE for 1-min ahead mean arterial pressure (MAP) predictions
- Similar performance on independent validation (N = 84); RMSE
- 4.2 ± 1.6 mmHg
- Independent model validation
Prediction horizon
- Good performance at up to a 3-min prediction horizon
Original publication
Empirical pharmacodynamic model of phenylephrine and intrathecal bupivacaine for mean arterial pressure prediction in obstetric patients presenting for elective cesarean delivery under spinal anesthesia. J Clin Monit Comput. Published 22 March 2025. doi:10.
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