Perioperative medicine & outcomes
External Validation of the National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) Prognostic Model in Emergency Abdominal Surgery
Authors' conclusion
The P-NELA prognostic model had good discrimination in this external validation. The reduced number of variables in this model compared to the previous NELA risk prediction model did not affect performance.
Study context
- Population
- Adults undergoing emergency laparotomy or laparoscopy for surgical gastrointestinal conditions (perforation, obstruction, ischaemia), Copenhagen University Hospital-Herlev, 1 Nov 2017–31 Jan 2020
- Participants
- 679 adults
- Comparison
- 2023 NELA prognostic model vs 2020 NELA risk prediction model
- Outcome
- 30-day mortality (model performance: scaled Brier score, AUC, Integrated Calibration Index)
- Follow-up
- 30 days
Methodological detailssingle-centre
- Single-centre
Performance
As reported in the abstract
30-day mortality prediction
| Test or model | Scaled Brier score | AUC (95% CI) | Integrated Calibration Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| P-NELA | 18% | 0.87 (0.83-0.90) | 0.042 |
P-NELA
Scaled Brier score18%
AUC (95% CI)0.87 (0.83-0.90)
Integrated Calibration Index0.042
- Observed 30-day mortality
- 13.3% (90 patients)
Original publication
External Validation of the NELA Prognostic Model in Emergency Abdominal Surgery. Acta Anaesthesiol Scand. Published 26 September 2025. doi:10.
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