Cardiac arrest & resuscitation
Forecasting the burden of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in a rapidly ageing Asian society: a nationwide age-period-cohort analysis in Singapore
Authors' conclusion
Our projections indicate an escalating burden of OHCA in Singapore driven largely by age-specific risks.
Study context
- Population
- Adult out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) cases in the Singapore national OHCA registry, 2010–2021
- Participants
- 28,229 adult OHCA cases
- Outcome
- OHCA incidence trends and projected incidence rates
- Follow-up
- Through to 2030
Methodological detailsnationwide, Bayesian age-period-cohort model (INLA), demographic decomposition
- Nationwide
- Bayesian age-period-cohort model (INLA)
- Demographic decomposition
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
OHCA incidence rates per 100,000 · 2010 to 2021
- Crude incidence rate, 2010 to 2021
- 25.0 to 74.0 per 100,000
- Age-standardised incidence rate, 2010 to 2021
- 26.9 to 60.0 per 100,000
- Age effect, RR
- 19.73 (95% CI 13.14-29.62)
- Period effect, RR
- 1.69 (95% CI 1.57-1.82)
- Cohort effect (more recent birth cohorts), RR
- 8.42 (95% CI 3.58-19.85)
- Share of rise in cases: increased age-specific incidence
- 62.3%
- Share of rise in cases: population ageing
- 23.3%
- Share of rise in cases: population growth
- 16.8%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Projected OHCA incidence, 2021 to 2030
- Crude rate: projected increase 77.3%
- 132.1 per 100,000 population
- Age-standardised rate: projected increase 29.2%
- 77.6 per 100,000 population
Original publication
Forecasting the burden of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in a rapidly ageing Asian society: a nationwide age-period-cohort analysis in Singapore. Resuscitation. Published 27 October 2025. doi:10.
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