Perioperative medicine & outcomes

Multicenter Validation of a Machine Learning Model for Surgical Transfusion Risk at 45 US Hospitals

JAMA Netw OpenPublished Retrospective cohort study

Main finding · Cases with type and screen recommendedResult — go to the resultMedian difference 17.9 absolute percentage points

Authors' conclusion

In this cohort study of 45 hospitals, a personalized surgical transfusion risk prediction algorithm demonstrated external validity and discrimination.

Study context

Population
All surgical cases in 2020 or 2021 at 45 US hospitals of the Multicenter Perioperative Outcomes Group; obstetric and nonoperative cases excludedsurgical cases, 45 hospitals
Participants
3,275,956 cases
Exposure
S-PATH machine learning model vs standard-of-care maximum surgical blood ordering schedule (MSBOS) approach
Outcome
Difference in % of patients with type and screen order recommendations between S-PATH and MSBOS at each hospital (thresholds set for 96% sensitivity)
Methodological detailsmulticentre, external validation
  • Multicentre
  • External validation

Main finding

Cases with type and screen recommended

Median difference

17.9 absolute percentage points

By group

As reported in the abstract

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Secondary outcomes

Median

OutcomeS-PATHMSBOS
AUROC0.929 (IQR 0.915–0.946)0.857 (IQR 0.822–0.884)

Original publication

Multicenter Validation of a Machine Learning Model for Surgical Transfusion Risk at 45 US Hospitals. JAMA Netw Open. Published 2 June 2025. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.17760

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