Cardiac arrest & resuscitation
Nationwide trends and future projections of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Japan: a Bayesian age-period-cohort model and demographic decomposition analysis
Authors' conclusion
In Japan, the crude incidence rate of OHCA due to presumed cardiac origin increased from 2009 to 2023, and the incidence is projected to continue increasing through 2030.
Study context
- Population
- Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) of presumed cardiac origin in Japan, All-Japan Utstein Registry, 2009–20232,009–2023
- Participants
- 1,158,691 participants
- Outcome
- Incidence of OHCA due to presumed cardiac origin
Methodological detailsage-period-cohort model, Bayesian age-period-cohort model (integrated nested Laplace approximations), demographic decomposition analysis
- Age-period-cohort model
- Bayesian age-period-cohort model (integrated nested Laplace approximations)
- Demographic decomposition analysis
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Crude incidence rate per 100,000 persons
Crude incidence rate per 100,000 persons, 2009
50.9
Crude incidence rate per 100,000 persons, 2023
72.8
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | RR (95% CI) | |
|---|---|---|
| Age effectAged ≥90 years vs Aged 45-49 years | 41.0 (39.8–42.3) | |
| Period effect2019-2023 vs 2009-2013 | 1.00 (0.99–1.02) | |
| Cohort effectBorn before 1921 vs Born in 1948 · peak; risk increased in older birth cohorts | 1.22 (1.20–1.24) | |
| 0.050.21520Relative risk (log scale) |
Age effect
- OHCA risk increased substantially with increasing age
Decomposition of change in OHCA number, 2009 to 2023
- Change in OHCA number
- +25,591
- Population aging, share of increase
- 100.5%
- Age-specific incidence, share of increase
- 7.1%
- Population growth, share of decrease
- 7.6%
Projected crude incidence rate per 100,000 persons
- 2024 (95%PI: 73.6-78.3)
- 76.0
- 2030 (95%PI: 66.6-127.7)
- 97.2
- Bayesian age-period-cohort projection
Original publication
Nationwide trends and future projections of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Japan: a Bayesian age-period-cohort model and demographic decomposition analysis. Resuscitation. Published 10 March 2026. doi:10.
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