Perioperative medicine & outcomes
Novel predictors of mortality in emergency bowel surgery: a single‐centre cohort study
Authors' conclusion
Pre-operative patient vital signs, blood tests and markers of frailty can be used to accurately predict the risk of 30-day mortality after emergency bowel surgery.
Study context
- Population
- Patients undergoing emergency bowel surgery, local National Emergency Laparotomy Audit data, single centre
- Participants
- 1,508 patients
- Exposure
- NEWS, LDT-EWS, Hospital Frailty Risk Score and a combined logistic regression model vs established risk models (incl. NELA score)
- Outcome
- Prediction of 30-day mortality
- Follow-up
- 30 days
Methodological detailssingle-centre, prognostic model development
- Single-centre
- Prognostic model development
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Discrimination for 30-day mortality
| Group | C-statistic |
|---|---|
| Individual scores | 0.699-0.740 |
| Combined model | 0.827 |
| NELA score | 0.861 |
| Other models | 0.734-0.808 |
C-statistic
Individual scores0.699-0.740
Combined model0.827
NELA score0.861
Other models0.734-0.808
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Mortality with National Early Warning Score ≥ 4
- High overall mortality rate
- > 10%
Original publication
Novel predictors of mortality in emergency bowel surgery: a single‐centre cohort study. Anaesthesia. Published 1 February 2023. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →