Perioperative medicine & outcomes
Predicting Death or Disability after Surgery in the Older Adult
Authors' conclusion
The authors developed and validated a point score model to predict death or disability in older patients after surgery.
Study context
- Population
- Patients ≥70 yr undergoing elective and nonelective, cardiac and noncardiac surgery, May 2017–February 20211,640 analysed at 6 months
- Participants
- 2,176 patients
- Comparison
- Development vs Internal validation vs External validation
- Outcome
- Discrimination of point-score model for 6-month death or disability
- Follow-up
- 6 months
Methodological detailsprospective registry, single-centre, internal and external validation
- Prospective registry
- Single-centre
- Internal and external validation
Performance
As reported in the abstract
| Test or model | AUC |
|---|---|
| Internal validation | 0.74 (95% CI, 0.69 to 0.79) |
| External validation | 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.80) |
AUC
Internal validation0.74 (95% CI, 0.69 to 0.79)
External validation0.77 (95% CI, 0.74 to 0.80)
Further findings
Preoperative disability · immediately before surgery
- Disabled
- 927 (43%)
- Significant disability
- 413 (19%)
- Of 2,176 patients
Death and death or disability · 6 months
- Died
- 195 (12%)
- Dead or disabled
- 691 (42%)
- Of 1,640 patients with data
Parts of this Brief are withheld: the automatic checks could not confirm them against the abstract.
Original publication
Predicting Death or Disability after Surgery in the Older Adult. Anesthesiology. Published 11 July 2023. doi:10.
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