Predicting ICU admission and death in the Emergency Department: A comparison of six early warning scores
Authors' conclusion
NEWS is the most accurate EWS for predicting the risk of death/ICU admission within 24 h from ED arrival. The score also had a fair calibration with few events occurring in patients classified at low risk.
Study context
- Population
- Consecutive adult (≥18 years) emergency department (ED) admissions, 2010–2019; Early Warning Scores (EWS) calculated on ED arrival1,941 (0.9%) ICU/death
- Participants
- 225,369 participants
- Exposure
- NEWS vs NEWS2 vs MEWS vs RAPS vs REMS vs SEWS
- Outcome
- Death or ICU admission (discrimination by ROC analysis and calibration)
- Follow-up
- Within 24 hours
Methodological detailssingle-centre
- Single-centre
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Death/ICU admission within 24 h
| Group | AUC |
|---|---|
| NEWS | 0.904 (95% CI 0.805-0.913) |
| NEWS2 | 0.901 |
AUC
NEWS0.904 (95% CI 0.805-0.913)
NEWS20.901
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | Values |
|---|---|
| Events in patients judged at low risk (NEWS < 2) · within 24 hours | NEWS 18.5% |
- Events in patients judged at low risk (NEWS < 2): 18.5% of the total events
Predictors of NEWS-unpredicted events (neural network analysis)
- Age, SBP and temperature had the highest relative weight
Original publication
Predicting ICU admission and death in the Emergency Department: A comparison of six early warning scores. Resuscitation. Published 17 June 2023. doi:10.
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