Perioperative medicine & outcomes
A prediction model for ‘ICU mortality or prolonged ICU stay’ in critically unwell patients with acute pancreatitis: insights from a 2003–2020 cohort analysis using the ANZICS-CORE database
Authors' conclusion
More than a quarter of ICU patients with AP have a high-risk trajectory. Prolonged ICU admissions are associated with significantly worse mortality and hospital outcomes, and increase resource use.
Study context
- Population
- Adults admitted to Australian and New Zealand ICUs with acute pancreatitis, 2003–2020
- Participants
- 13,275 adults
- Exposure
- High-risk trajectory vs low-risk trajectory
- High-risk trajectoryn = 3,557
- Outcome
- Prediction model performance for high-risk trajectory
Methodological detailsregistry database (ANZICS-CORE), prediction model development, 10-fold cross validation, Data censored to December 2020 to pre-date the COVID-19 pandemic
- Registry database (ANZICS-CORE)
- Prediction model development
- 10-fold cross validation
- Data censored to December 2020 to pre-date the COVID-19 pandemic
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
- Model accuracy
- 79.5%
- Cohen K
- 0.49
- AUROC
- 0.827
- Sensitivity for high-risk trajectory
- 0.54
- Specificity for high-risk trajectory
- 0.916
- High-risk trajectory frequency
- 3557 (26.8%)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Outcomes associated with prolonged ICU length of stay (LOS)
| OR (95% CI) | P value | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Prolonged ICU LOSICU mortality | 1.57 (1.43–1.73) | P < 0.001 | |
| Prolonged ICU LOSHospital mortality | 1.69 (1.56–1.83) | P < 0.001 | |
| Prolonged ICU LOSMechanical ventilation | 5.99 (5.21–6.90) | P < 0.001 | |
| Prolonged ICU LOSInotrope/vasopressor support | 3.27 (2.82–3.79) | P < 0.001 | |
| Prolonged ICU LOSDialysis | 4.12 (3.63–4.68) | P < 0.001 | |
| 0.10.31310Odds ratio (log scale) |
Frequency of prolonged ICU LOS and ICU mortality
- ICU LOS > 7 days
- 2860 (21.6%)
- Died in ICU
- 1022 (7.7%)
Outcomes associated with prolonged ICU LOS
- Prolonged ICU LOS associated with increased rate of hospital discharge to rehabilitation or a nursing home
Parts of this Brief are withheld: the automatic checks could not confirm them against the abstract.
Original publication
A prediction model for ‘ICU mortality or prolonged ICU stay’ in critically unwell patients with acute pancreatitis: insights from a 2003–2020 cohort analysis using the ANZICS-CORE database. Crit Care. Published 6 August 2025. doi:10.
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