ICU sedation, delirium & recovery

Prognosis of Nonagenarian ICU Patients A Bayesian analysis of prospective European studies

Ann Intensive CarePublished Bayesian analysis of prospective European registry studies

Authors' conclusion

Nonagenarians in the ICU have a slightly higher 30-day mortality risk compared to octogenarians, but the increase is unlikely to exceed clinically meaningful thresholds.

Study context

Population
Very elderly patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs), VIP1, VIP2 and COVIP registriesVIP1, VIP2, COVIP registries
Participants
8,408 patients
Exposure
Nonagenarians vs octogenarians
  • Nonagenariansn = 807
  • Octogenariansn = 7,601reference
Outcome
Mortality
Follow-up
30 days
Methodological detailsMarkov Chain Monte Carlo simulations, non-informative, pessimistic and skeptical priors, adjusted for SOFA score, frailty and treatment limitations
  • Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations
  • Non-informative, pessimistic and skeptical priors
  • Adjusted for SOFA score, frailty and treatment limitations

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

30-day mortality

P = 0.12

Probability that nonagenarians face a higher 30-day mortality risk
81.1-97.9%
Probability of a clinically significant increase in mortality (RR > 1.1)
28.9-34.7%
Probability of a substantial increase (RR > 1.2)
0.03-1.9%

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Original publication

Prognosis of Nonagenarian ICU Patients A Bayesian analysis of prospective European studies. Ann Intensive Care. Published 23 June 2025. doi:10.1186/s13613-025-01496-2

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