Bayesian methods: a potential path forward for sepsis trials
An erratum to this article was published (Crit Care, 3 Jan 2024 ↗)
Authors' conclusion
Using Bayesian methods and a biologically justifiable use of historical data in a prior distribution yields a study design with higher power than a conventional design that ignores relevant historical data.
Study context
- Population
- Simulated new trial of polymyxin B hemoadsorption in adult critically ill patients with endotoxemic septic shock, using historical data from a 179-patient subgroup (multiple organ failure, endotoxin activity 0.60–0.89) of a US and Canada multicentre RCTsimulated new trial
- Participants
- 150 participants
- Comparison
- Four ways of including historical data in the prior vs ignoring historical data
- Outcome
- Statistical power / probability of benefit (mortality) by use of historical data
Methodological detailsBayesian, historical data incorporated through a prior distribution
- Bayesian
- Historical data incorporated through a prior distribution
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Probability of benefit, example result with mortality reduced from 44 to 37%
Original publication
Bayesian methods: a potential path forward for sepsis trials. Crit Care. Published 8 November 2023. doi:10.
Composed by AI from the published abstract and checked against it. How Briefs are made →