Pain medicine

Somatic and psychological predictors of chronic postsurgical pain in cancer patients: a machine learning approach in a longitudinal two-centre study

Br J AnaesthPublished Prospective cohort study

Authors' conclusion

This simple algorithm, requiring only three easily accessible inputs, offers a practical tool in routine preoperative settings, supporting timely, targeted interventions to improve pain management in cancer patients at risk of chronic postsurgical pain.

Study context

Population
Adults with breast or lung cancer undergoing surgery, two European centres
Participants
255 adults
Outcome
Chronic postsurgical pain
Follow-up
1 yr
Methodological detailsprediction model development, longitudinal, two-centre, machine learning, Preoperative data collected 2017–2018; 4 machine learning models trained and validated; re-evaluated by face-to-face interview 1 yr later
  • Prediction model development
  • Longitudinal
  • Two-centre
  • Machine learning
  • Preoperative data collected 2017–2018; 4 machine learning models trained and validated; re-evaluated by face-to-face interview 1 yr later

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

Chronic postsurgical pain and predictors in the algorithm
Chronic postsurgical pain
83 patients (32.5%)
Neuropathic pain
72 (28% of the total sample)
Younger age, OR
0.47 (95% CI 0.32-0.69)
Preoperative pain outside the surgical area, OR
2.45 (95% CI 1.46-4.10)
Overwhelming worries (anxiety symptom), OR
1.81 (95% CI 1.05-3.13)

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Original publication

Somatic and psychological predictors of chronic postsurgical pain in cancer patients: a machine learning approach in a longitudinal two-centre study. Br J Anaesth. Published 7 January 2026. doi:10.1016/j.bja.2025.12.002

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