Survival effect of prehospital emergency anaesthesia with intubation in risk-stratified patients with major trauma: a causal modelling study
Main finding · 30-day mortality, causal effect of prehospital intubationResult — go to the resultConditional average treatment effect −0.103 95% CI −0.119 to −0.087Authors' conclusion
Guiding prehospital intubation by a machine-learning stratification model of prehospital data is predicted to improve 30-day survival of major trauma patients.
Study context
- Population
- Patients admitted to a UK major trauma centre, Feb 23, 2012, to Nov 13, 2019
- Participants
- 6,467 patients
- Comparison
- Prehospital emergency anaesthesia with intubation vs no prehospital intubation
- Outcome
- Survival (30-day mortality)
- Follow-up
- 30 days
Methodological detailsdoubly robust estimation, inverse probability weighting, machine learning, single UK major trauma centre
- Doubly robust estimation
- Inverse probability weighting
- Machine learning
- Single UK major trauma centre
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
30-day mortality, causal effect of prehospital intubation
Conditional average treatment effect
−0.103
95% CI −0.119 to −0.087
Further findings
| Outcome | Predicted intubation, not received | Not predicted | P value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Survival by predicted need for intubation | 66.8% (95% CI 61.3–71.7) | 93.6% (95% CI 92.5–94.6) | P < 0.0001 |
Prediction from early prehospital data
- AUC, early intubation
- 0.943
- AUC, 30-day mortality
- 0.867
Scaled UK-wide estimates · per year
- Deaths prevented per year
- 170 (95% CI 148 to 191)
- Annual cost-effectiveness value, £ million
- 101 (95% CI 93 to 111)
Parts of this Brief are withheld: the automatic checks could not confirm them against the abstract.
Original publication
Survival effect of prehospital emergency anaesthesia with intubation in risk-stratified patients with major trauma: a causal modelling study. Lancet Respir Med. Published 11 February 2026. doi:10.
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