Cardiac arrest & resuscitation
The PRognostic Evaluation of ECPR (Pre-ECPR) Score: Developing and Validating a Multivariable Prediction Model for Favorable Neurological Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Extracorporeal Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation
Authors' conclusion
In cross-validation, it demonstrated significantly more favorable discriminatory performance than that of the ELSO criteria.
Study context
- Population
- Normothermic Extracorporeal Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (ECPR) patients, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, January 2010–October 2021
- Participants
- 120 patients
- Comparison
- Pre-ECPR score vs Extracorporeal Life Support Organization (ELSO) selection criteria
- Outcome
- Discrimination for 1-year survival with favorable outcomes (mRS 0-3)
- Follow-up
- 1 year
Methodological detailssingle-centre
- Single-centre
Performance
As reported in the abstract
| Test or model | AUC (development) | AUC | Sensitivity (probabilities >6.4%) | PPV (probabilities >6.4%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-ECPR score | 0.87 (95% CI 0.77-0.93) | — not stated in the abstract | 100% | 40.5% |
| ELSO criteria | — not stated in the abstract | 0.63 (95% CI 0.54-0.72) | — not stated in the abstract | — not stated in the abstract |
AUC (development)
Pre-ECPR score0.87 (95% CI 0.77-0.93)
ELSO criteria— not stated in the abstract
AUC
Pre-ECPR score— not stated in the abstract
ELSO criteria0.63 (95% CI 0.54-0.72)
Sensitivity (probabilities >6.4%)
Pre-ECPR score100%
ELSO criteria— not stated in the abstract
PPV (probabilities >6.4%)
Pre-ECPR score40.5%
ELSO criteria— not stated in the abstract
— not stated in the abstract
- Pre-ECPR score vs ELSO criteria: P = 0.012 — internal cross-validation: AUC 0.79 (95% CI 0.67-0.88) vs 0.63 (95% CI 0.54-0.72)
- Favorable outcomes, all patients
- 27.5%
Further findings
- Pre-ECPR score probability >6.4% threshold
- 100% · sensitivity · PPV 40.5%
Favorable outcomes (incidence)
- Favorable outcomes occurred in
- 27.5%
Parts of this Brief are withheld: the automatic checks could not confirm them against the abstract.
Original publication
The Pre-ECPR Score: Developing and Validating a Multivariable Prediction Model for Favorable Neurological Outcomes in Patients Undergoing Extracorporeal Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation. J Cardiothorac Vasc Anesth. Published 17 September 2024. doi:10.
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