ICU sedation, delirium & recovery
Validation of PREdiction of DELIRium in ICu patients (PRE-DELIRIC) model for intensive care unit (ICU) delirium in general ICU and patients with liver disease: a retrospective cohort study
Authors' conclusion
We found moderate-to-good discriminative predictive performance both overall and in liver disease patients, but calibration was only moderate overall, and significantly under-predicted risk in patients with liver disease.
Study context
- Population
- Adult ICU patients at Cambridge University Hospital, February 2017 to September 2021
- Participants
- 3,312 patients
- Outcome
- Predictive performance of PRE-DELIRIC for ICU delirium (positive Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU (CAM-ICU) or any new antipsychotic): discrimination (AUROC) and calibration (slope, intercept)
Methodological detailsexternal validation, single-centre
- External validation
- Single-centre
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Delirium prediction, overall cohort
Delirium incidence
32.9%
Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) (moderate-to-good discrimination)
0.74
95% CI 0.72–0.76
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Delirium prediction, liver disease (subgroup)
- Delirium incidence
- 41.6%
- AUROC (similar to overall cohort)
- 0.73 (95% CI 0.66-0.81)
- Poor calibration, significant under-prediction of delirium
Delirium prediction, sedated and high opioid dosing (subgroups)
- Discrimination significantly poorer in sedated patients and with high opioid dosing
Original publication
Validation of PREdiction of DELIRium in ICu patients (PRE-DELIRIC) model for ICU delirium in general ICU and patients with liver disease: a retrospective cohort study. J Intensive Care. Published 16 June 2025. doi:10.
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