Pediatric anesthesia & critical care
Biomarker-based risk model to predict persistent multiple organ dysfunctions after congenital heart surgery: a prospective observational cohort study
Authors' conclusion
We present a novel risk prediction model to assess the risk for development of multiple organ dysfunction after pediatric cardiac surgery requiring CPB.
Study context
- Population
- Children <18 years in a pediatric cardiac ICU after cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) surgery for congenital heart disease
- Participants
- 306 children
- Outcome
- Persistent multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) (dysfunction of ≥2 organ systems)
- Follow-up
- POD 5
Methodological detailsclassification and regression tree model derivation, ten-fold cross-validation
- Classification and regression tree model derivation
- Ten-fold cross-validation
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Discrimination of persistent MODS
| Group | AUROC | NPV |
|---|---|---|
| Risk model | 0.86 (0.81-0.91) | 99% (95-100) |
Risk model
AUROC0.86 (0.81-0.91)
NPV99% (95-100)
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
- Corrected AUROC of the model on ten-fold cross-validation
- 0.75 (0.68-0.84)
Original publication
Biomarker-based risk model to predict persistent multiple organ dysfunctions after congenital heart surgery: a prospective observational cohort study. Crit Care. Published 20 May 2023. doi:10.
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