Perioperative medicine & outcomes
Development and validation of a nomogram to predict postoperative delirium in older patients after major abdominal surgery: a retrospective case-control study
Authors' conclusion
We developed a nomogram that could predict postoperative delirium with high accuracy and stability in older patients after major abdominal surgery.
Study context
- Population
- Patients aged ≥ 65 years undergoing major abdominal surgery, single hospital in Beijing, China, January 2014–December 2018
- Participants
- 7,577 patients
- Comparison
- Training vs Validation
- Trainingn = 5,303
- Validationn = 2,224
- Outcome
- Postoperative delirium (prediction by nomogram)
Methodological detailsprediction model development and validation, single-centre, nomogram, training and validation cohorts
- Prediction model development and validation
- Single-centre
- Nomogram
- Training and validation cohorts
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Nomogram discrimination (8 variables: age, COPD, white blood cell count, glucose, total protein, creatinine, emergency surgery, anesthesia time)
| Group | AUC |
|---|---|
| Training | 0.731 |
| Validation | 0.735 |
AUC
Training0.731
Validation0.735
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Risk stratification by nomogram score (low < 175; medium 175~199; high > 199)
- Discrimination across three risk groups
- P < 0.001
Decision curve analysis
- Nomogram provided a good net clinical benefit
Original publication
Development and validation of a nomogram to predict postoperative delirium in older patients after major abdominal surgery: a retrospective case-control study. Perioper Med (Lond). Published 16 May 2024. doi:10.
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