Perioperative medicine & outcomes
Development and validation of a post-operative delirium prediction model for patients undergoing abdominal surgery: a retrospective, observational, single-center study
Authors' conclusion
Our data indicated that improving perioperative management may reduce POD incidence in patients who are old age and have cerebrovascular disease history.
Study context
- Population
- Consecutive patients scheduled for elective abdominal surgery, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai, China838 included after screening
- Participants
- One thousand patients
- Exposure
- Training vs External validation
- Trainingn = 838
- External validationn = 346
- Outcome
- POD incidence
Methodological detailsprediction model development and validation, observational, single-centre, internal and external validation
- Prediction model development and validation
- Observational
- Single-centre
- Internal and external validation
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
POD incidence (training cohort)
Training
10.9%
91 of 838
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Model discrimination, fitting set
- Fitting set AUC
- 0.703 (95% CI 0.637-0.753)
- Optimum cut-off of predicted probability
- 0.12
- Sensitivity
- 0.556
- Specificity
- 0.754
- Main contributors: old age, cerebrovascular disease, diazepam use history, intraoperative fluid imbalance
Model discrimination, cross validation
- Mean AUC (SD 0.068)
- 0.684
Model discrimination, external validation
- AUC
- 0.634 (95% CI 0.511-0.758)
- External cohort of 346 patients
Original publication
Development and validation of a post-operative delirium prediction model for patients undergoing abdominal surgery: a retrospective, observational, single-center study. Perioper Med (Lond). Published 28 February 2026. doi:10.
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