Cardiothoracic & vascular anesthesia
External validation of a predictive model for reintubation after cardiac surgery: A retrospective, observational study
Authors' conclusion
The reintubation model displayed strong discriminative ability and low predictive error within each validation cohort.
Study context
- Population
- Adults arriving in the cardiac ICU with an ETT in place after cardiac surgery, three US academic medical centres
- Participants
- 1,642 / 2,041 / 2,489
- Comparison
- Temporal validation vs Combined domain and geographic validation vs Geographic validation
- Temporal validationn = 1,642
- Combined domain and geographic validationn = 2,041
- Geographic validationn = 2,489
- Outcome
- Discriminative ability and predictive error of a reintubation model after cardiac surgery within each validation cohort
Methodological detailstemporal, geographic and domain validation, three academic medical centres
- Temporal, geographic and domain validation
- Three academic medical centres
Performance
As reported in the abstract
Reintubation model performance
| Test or model | Value | Reintubation rate | Optimism-corrected c-statistic | Brier score | Optimal F1 score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temporal validation | 4.8% | 4.8% | 0.77 | 0.044 | 0.29 |
| Combined domain and geographic validation | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.73 | 0.0149 | 0.13 |
| Geographic validation | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.71 | 0.0152 | 0.13 |
Value
Temporal validation4.8%
Combined domain and geographic validation1.5%
Geographic validation1.6%
Reintubation rate
Temporal validation4.8%
Combined domain and geographic validation1.5%
Geographic validation1.6%
Optimism-corrected c-statistic
Temporal validation0.77
Combined domain and geographic validation0.73
Geographic validation0.71
Brier score
Temporal validation0.044
Combined domain and geographic validation0.0149
Geographic validation0.0152
Optimal F1 score
Temporal validation0.29
Combined domain and geographic validation0.13
Geographic validation0.13
Original publication
External validation of a predictive model for reintubation after cardiac surgery: A retrospective, observational study. J Clin Anesth. Published 24 October 2023. doi:10.
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