Perioperative medicine & outcomes
Nomogram for predicting the risk of postoperative delirium in elderly patients undergoing orthopedic surgery
Authors' conclusion
This study used 7 risk factors to construct a nomogram to predict the risk of POD after major orthopedic surgery in elderly individuals, and the nomogram had good discrimination ability, accuracy, and clinical practicability.
Study context
- Population
- Elderly patients undergoing orthopedic surgery, January 2019 to January 2022
- Participants
- 1,011 patients
- Outcome
- Postoperative delirium (POD)
Methodological detailsprediction model development, nomogram
- Prediction model development
- Nomogram
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Independent risk factors for POD (multivariate logistic regression)
Odds ratio (95% CI)P value
Age ≥ 75 years vs < 75 years
2.889(1.149–7.264)
P < 0.05Male vs Female
2.368(1.066–5.261)
P < 0.05Preoperative cognitive impairment vs No cognitive impairment
13.587(4.360–42.338)
P < 0.05Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Nomogram performance (7 risk factors: age, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification, sex, preoperative hemoglobin (Hb), preoperative pulmonary disease, cognitive impairment, intraoperative infusion volume)
- AUC (good discrimination)
- 0.867
- Calibration curve slope
- 1.0
- Optimal net benefit range, decision curve analysis
- 0.01-0.58
Original publication
Nomogram for predicting the risk of postoperative delirium in elderly patients undergoing orthopedic surgery. Perioper Med (Lond). Published 4 May 2024. doi:10.
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