ICU sedation, delirium & recovery
Prediction of Long-Term Physical, Mental, and Cognitive Problems Following Critical Illness: Development and External Validation of the PROSPECT Prediction Model*
Authors' conclusion
The developed and externally validated PROSPECT model can be used within 48 hours after ICU admission for identifying patients with an increased risk of post-ICU problems 3 months after ICU admission.
Study context
- Population
- ICU patients older than 16 years admitted for ≥12 hours, seven Dutch ICUs, July 2016–March 2020
- Participants
- 2,476 participants
- Exposure
- Internal validation vs External validation
- Internal validationn = 1,244
- External validationn = 864
- Outcome
- Discrimination of PROSPECT model (predictors: COPD, admission type, expected ICU LOS ≥2 days, preadmission anxiety and fatigue)
- Follow-up
- 3 months
Methodological detailsmulticentre (seven Dutch ICUs), prediction model development and external validation, bootstrapping internal validation
- Multicentre (seven Dutch ICUs)
- Prediction model development and external validation
- Bootstrapping internal validation
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
| Group | C-statistic | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|
| Internal validation | 0.73 | 0.70-0.76 |
| External validation | 0.77 | 0.73-0.80 |
C-statistic
Internal validation0.73
External validation0.77
95% CI
Internal validation0.70-0.76
External validation0.73-0.80
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Parts of this Brief are withheld: the automatic checks could not confirm them against the abstract.
Original publication
Prediction of Long-Term Physical, Mental, and Cognitive Problems Following Critical Illness: Development and External Validation of the PROSPECT Prediction Model*. Crit Care Med. Published 15 December 2023. doi:10.
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