Respiratory failure & ventilation

Risk heterogeneity within hypoinflammatory acute respiratory failure: continuous probabilities identify high-risk patients masked by binary classification

Intensive Care MedPublished Retrospective cohort study

Authors' conclusion

Binary classification obscures substantial prognostic heterogeneity within hypoinflammatory AHRF patients.

Study context

Population
Critically ill adults with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure (AHRF) (Pittsburgh Acute Lung Injury Registry); validation in EDEN trial, COVID-19 cohorts and RoCI registry1,134 validation
Participants
575 adults
Exposure
Continuous subphenotype probability tertiles within hypoinflammatory and hyperinflammatory subphenotypes
  • Hypoinflammatoryn = 498reference
  • Hyperinflammatoryn = 77
Outcome
Mortality
Follow-up
90 days
Methodological detailsregistry-based, external validation
  • Registry-based
  • External validation

Main finding

As reported in the abstract

90-day mortality across probability tertiles

Hyperinflammatory

55%

Hypoinflammatory: mortality increased across probability tertiles
19 to 31% to 40%; P < 0.001
Hyperinflammatory: homogeneous mortality across tertiles
P = 0.72

Observational data: associations, not effects.

Further findings

Continuous probability vs mortality (restricted cubic spline)

Strong non-linear relationship, steepest risk increases below the 0.5 threshold

Clinical severity scores and immune activation biomarkers across hypoinflammatory tertiles

Increased progressively
all P < 0.001

Mortality by probability trajectory (longitudinal sampling, n = 330)

Hypoinflammatory rising trajectories vs stable or declining
50-100% vs. 16-40%; all P < 0.001
Hyperinflammatory: poor outcomes regardless of trajectory

External validation

Heterogeneity and non-linear probability-mortality patterns confirmed across cohorts; similar with procalcitonin-based model

Original publication

Risk heterogeneity within hypoinflammatory acute respiratory failure: continuous probabilities identify high-risk patients masked by binary classification. Intensive Care Med. Published 27 April 2026. doi:10.1007/s00134-026-08406-5

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