Cardiothoracic & vascular anesthesia
Optimizing Risk Prediction: Comparative Study of Surgical Outcome Risk Tool Versions 1 and 2 in Aortic Surgery
Authors' conclusion
In thoracic aortic surgery, SORT V2 provides a pragmatic option for preoperative risk estimation, with good discrimination and reliable calibration across the full cohort and key subgroups.
Study context
- Population
- Adults undergoing elective or emergency thoracic aortic surgery, single tertiary academic centre, 2014–2025
- Participants
- 829 adults
- Exposure
- Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) V1 vs SORT V2 vs EuroSCORE II
- Outcome
- Operative mortality prediction (discrimination by AUC; calibration by Hosmer-Lemeshow test, observed-to-expected ratios, model deviance, Cox-Snell R²)
Methodological detailssingle-centre, bootstrap internal validation
- Single-centre
- Bootstrap internal validation
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Prediction of operative mortality, total cohort
| Group | AUC |
|---|---|
| SORT V2 | 0.82 |
SORT V2
AUC0.82
- Overall operative mortality 38/829
- 4.6%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
| Outcome | Values |
|---|---|
| Prediction of operative mortality, dissection cases (subgroup) | German Registry for Acute Type Aortic Dissection AUC 0.79 |
Prediction of operative mortality, dissection cases (subgroup)
- German Registry for Acute Type Aortic Dissection highest discrimination; Penn classification most favorable calibration; SORT V2 acceptable calibration, comparing favorably with EuroSCORE II
Prespecified subgroups and bootstrap internal validation
- Performance preserved in prespecified subgroups; bootstrap internal validation supported stability of estimates
Original publication
Optimizing Risk Prediction: Comparative Study of Surgical Outcome Risk Tool Versions 1 and 2 in Aortic Surgery. J Cardiothorac Vasc Anesth. Published 26 October 2025. doi:10.
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