Cardiothoracic & vascular anesthesia
Practical prognostic tools to predict the risk of postoperative delirium in older patients undergoing cardiac surgery: visual and dynamic nomograms
Authors' conclusion
We established two nomogram models based on the preoperative and postoperative time points to predict POD risk and guide the flexible implementation of possible interventions at different time points.
Study context
- Population
- Older patients undergoing cardiac surgery, Nanjing First Hospital, China, July 2021 to June 2022
- Participants
- 531 patients
- Exposure
- Preoperative model vs Postoperative model
- Outcome
- POD
Methodological detailssingle-centre, prognostic model development, 10-fold cross-validation
- Single-centre
- Prognostic model development
- 10-fold cross-validation
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Predictive performance for POD
| Group | AUC |
|---|---|
| Preoperative model | 0.731 |
| Postoperative model | 0.799 |
AUC
Preoperative model0.731
Postoperative model0.799
- Postoperative Delirium (POD) incidence
- 30%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Further findings
Predictors in preoperative model
- ASA, OR (p < 0.001)
- 3.220
- Cerebrovascular disease, OR (p < 0.001)
- 2.326
- Alb, OR (p < 0.037)
- 0.946
- URE, OR (p < 0.001)
- 1.137
Predictors in postoperative model
- ASA, OR (p = 0.044)
- 1.737
- Preoperative MMSE score, OR (p = 0.005)
- 0.782
- URE, OR (p = 0.017)
- 1.092
- CPB duration, OR (p < 0.001)
- 1.010
- APACHE II, OR (p < 0.001)
- 1.353
Original publication
Practical prognostic tools to predict the risk of postoperative delirium in older patients undergoing cardiac surgery: visual and dynamic nomograms. J Clin Monit Comput. Published 21 September 2024. doi:10.
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