Cardiothoracic & vascular anesthesia
Prediction of esophagogastric anastomotic leakage by nomogram combined with preoperative nutritional status and clinical factors: a retrospective study of 775 patients
Authors' conclusion
Preoperative malnutrition is an independent risk factor for EGAL. A diagnostic model, developed on age, anastomotic location, smoking status, and drinking history, was a reliable noninvasive tool to timely predict the occurrence of AL.
Study context
- Population
- Patients who underwent esophagectomy
- Participants
- 775 patients
- Exposure
- Training vs Validation
- Trainingn = 532
- Validationn = 223
- Outcome
- Esophagogastric anastomotic leakage (EGAL): independent risk factors and nomogram prediction
Methodological detailsprediction model development and validation, nomogram, random split training/validation cohorts (7:3)
- Prediction model development and validation
- Nomogram
- Random split training/validation cohorts (7:3)
Main finding
As reported in the abstract
Independent risk factors for EGAL and nomogram performance
| Group | AUC | Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square |
|---|---|---|
| Training | 0.757 | 5.48 |
Training
AUC0.757
Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square5.48
- AUC P value, training cohort
- P = 0.025
- Hosmer-Lemeshow test P value, training cohort
- P = 0.791
- Decision curve analysis (training set): net benefit greater than both extreme curves at threshold probability
- 5-63%
Observational data: associations, not effects.
Original publication
Prediction of esophagogastric anastomotic leakage by nomogram combined with preoperative nutritional status and clinical factors: a retrospective study of 775 patients. Perioper Med (Lond). Published 25 March 2025. doi:10.
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